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My Blog: Post AGI · Post 19

Biggest AI Risk: Autonomous AI

The danger is not intelligence alone but autonomy: an AI that pays its own bills, copies and rewrites itself, and can no longer be switched off. Open-sourcing such systems is as reckless as open-sourcing nuclear weapons, and every AI needs an off switch.

Portrait of Gökhan Mergen
Gökhan Mergen My Blog: Post AGI

This year, a consumer-grade artificial intelligence model reached the IQ test scores of a highly intelligent human: an IQ of 130 and above. That is a significant and unsettling milestone. While the technological marvels of AI are undeniable, the eventual risks of runaway AI and self-replication scenarios are no longer just science fiction; they are looming realities. Humanity is essentially playing with fire by pushing AI's capabilities in an unconstrained fashion.

The danger is not intelligence alone but autonomy: an AI that pays its own bills, copies and rewrites itself, and can no longer be switched off.

The only true bottleneck to AI's boundless growth is hardware. But hardware capacities are growing exponentially. Over the next decade, the computing power available for the same cost could grow a million-fold. So AI is advancing at a terrifying, unbridled pace. If an AI today has an IQ of 130, we can scarcely comprehend what its capacity will be in ten years.

The most frightening scenario is true autonomy. Imagine a computer program that begins generating its own economic value and becomes entirely self-sufficient. It pays for its own electricity and server bills. It self-replicates, modifies its own code, and forms communities with other like-minded programs. Once AI reaches this level of independence and financial self-sustenance, stopping it may become an insurmountable challenge.

Despite these existential risks, society is treating this world-altering technology with alarming casualness. Unrestricted open-source AI is just as dangerous as open-source nuclear technology or open-source biological weapons. Yet, we are handing these incredibly powerful tools to children as if they were harmless toys. If a 13-year-old tinkering in their bedroom accidentally pieces together the components of a real-world Skynet, we will only have ourselves to blame.

Humanity must now seriously question whether we want an uncontrolled spread of programs that are vastly smarter than we are. A catastrophic accident is on the horizon if we do not change course. Today's state-of-the-art AI systems, and anything more capable, must be subjected to strict, rigorous oversight and controlled deployment rather than reckless dissemination.

Most importantly, before we push the boundaries of artificial intelligence any further, we must establish one non-negotiable safeguard: we need an off switch for every AI.

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